Consequence model for ship accidents

A consequence model for ship accidents was developed. The model covers: (a) Lives lost in terms of the probability for a fatality given an accident and the number of fatalities given an accident with at least one fatality, (b) Pollution in terms of the probability for discharge given an accident and the quantity spilt given an accident with pollution, (c) Environmental impacts in terms of the probability for environmental consequences given an accident and strand zone contamination given a pollution accident, and (d) Financial risks in terms of clean up costs and total costs following pollution. Model parameters were derived from the analysis of accident statistics. The model is, however, based on limited data. The consequences for a significant proportion of the accidents seem to be unknown or are not recorded. This limits the analysis, makes results uncertain and the resulting model less reliable.