Prognostic stratification in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after curative resection based on preoperative pancreatic contrast-enhanced CT findings

Purpose: To establish a prognostic stratification model for predicting prognosis in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after curative resection based on preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) findings. Method: From January 2014 to June 2020, 126 patients with radically resected PDAC were reviewed and divided into a development cohort (n = 90) and a validation cohort (n = 36). In the development cohort, clinicopathological parameters and preoperative CECT findings associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were identified by using univariate and multivariate analyses. Nomograms were constructed based on Cox proportional hazards regression models. New prognostic nomograms were certificated in the validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated based on calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. Results: Tumor size >4 cm, adjacent organs invasion, suspicious lymph nodes, and rim enhancement were independently associated with worse RFS and OS (all P values were < 0.05). In the validation cohort, the nomograms based on pancreatic CECT showed good discrimination capability and outperformed the TNM staging system in outcomes prediction. Patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups based on nomograms, and RFS and OS rates in the low-risk group were significantly higher than those in the high-risk group (P < 0.001 and <0.01, respectively). Conclusions: Nomograms based on preoperative pancreatic CECT findings can predict RFS and OS for PDAC patients after curative resection and facilitate further prognostic stratification.