MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ASSESSING THE NUMBER OF BAIKAL OMUL IN THE SYSTEM OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND LEGAL ASPECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAW VIOLATIONS

The issue of legal regulation of fishing one of the brand species of Baikal Region's bio-resources - Baikal omul - is especially urgent at present. The paper reflects administrative and criminal aspects of its protection as well as criminological specifics of illegal fishing of omul in light of the ban on fishing introduced in 2017; it highlights the environmental-legal and socio-economic aspects of this problem and presents a mathematical model of assessing the number of Baikal omul. The growth of criminal incidents in the sphere of using water resources of Baikal makes it impossible for scientists to objectively assess the number of omul in the lake using traditional bio-statistics methods. Besides, environmental law violations, and their regional specifics, make it necessary to continue developing complex systemic approaches to counteracting criminogenic processes. Prevention measures aimed at preserving Lake Baikal as a unique nature zone, together with various nature protection measures, should be implemented with the use of a whole complex of nature protection actions. The authors analyze the effectiveness of the existing legal mechanisms in the sphere of counteracting illegal fishing, as well as the necessity of establishing working mechanisms for the protection and reproduction of fish resources of Baikal, and present the description of initial parameters and equations to form a mathematical model of analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the number of omul in Lake Baikal. The authors also present a simplified version of such a model and use specific examples to illustrate the possibility of using it to assess the parameters and study the dynamics of the number of omul population during disturbing influences. They offer a brief description of the possibilities for the further development of this simplified model, which has at present been implemented. The scientific basis obtained, among other things, with the help of mathematical instruments should be viewed as the principles for forming an effective, clear, and needs-oriented normative legal basis of managing the bio-resources of Baikal with a growing anti-criminogenic potential.