Screening with the double surprise question to predict deterioration and death: an explorative study

Background Early identification of palliative patients is challenging. The Surprise Question (SQ1; Would I be surprised if this patient were to die within 12 months?) is widely used to identify palliative patients. However, its predictive value is low. Therefore, we added a second question (SQ2) to SQ1: 'Would I be surprised if this patient is still alive after 12 months?' We studied the accuracy of this double surprise question (DSQ) in a general practice. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study with retrospective medical record review in a general practice in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Two general practitioners (GPs) answered both questions for all 292 patients aged >= 75 years (mean age 84 years). Primary outcome was 1-year death, secondary outcomes were aspects of palliative care. Results SQ1 was answered with 'no' for 161/292 patients. Of these, SQ2 was answered with 'yes' in 22 patients. Within 12 months 26 patients died, of whom 24 had been identified with SQ1 (sensitivity: 92%, specificity: 49%). Ten of them were also identified with SQ2 (sensitivity: 42%, specificity: 91%). The latter group had more contacts with their GP and more palliative care aspects were discussed. Conclusions The DSQ appears a feasible and easy applicable screening tool in general practice. It is highly effective in predicting patients in high need for palliative care and using it helps to discriminate between patients with different life expectancies and palliative care needs. Further research is necessary to confirm the findings of this study.