Seismic vulnerability assessment on a territorial scale based on a Bayesian approach

Italian historical centres are mostly characterized by aggregate buildings. As defined by the Italian codes (Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni 2008 and Circolare n. 617), the analysis of the most representative local mechanisms of collapse must be performed in order to assess their vulnerability. In this article, the out-of-plane local mechanisms of collapse analysis is implemented by applying a new method of analysis based on a probabilistic approach. Usually information which are necessary for the implementation of the local mechanisms analyses are affected by uncertainty or are missing, therefore in lots of cases it is only possible to hypothesize them on the basis of the other buildings information collected during the on-site survey. In this context, the implementation of a Bayesian approach allows to deduce buildings lacking information (i.e. wall thickness and interstorey height) starting from certain collected data (i.e. facades height). The historical centre of Timisoara (Romania) is selected as the case study for the implementation of this new method of analysis, given the extension of the on-site survey already carried out in the area (information about more than 200 structural units have been collected) and the seismic vulnerability assessment on an urban scale already performed by applying a traditional method. Results obtained by adopting the two approaches are then compared and a validation and a calibration of the new one is carried out.