Environmental sustainability and scenarios of urbanization in arid area - A case study in Wuwei City of Gansu province

Northwestern China, located in the hinterland of Asia-European continent, is occupied by and and semi-arid areas, with very vulnerable natural environment and long history of oasis economy. Implementation of the new policy of development of West China resulted in both economic progress and environmental crisis. This article, taking Wuwei City as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of energy, pollution discharge, transportation, food, industry and urbanization. Polestar language, the model developed and used by the Global Scenario Group, was applied to simulate the development of the study area. The results revealed that the Wuwei city would reach a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional development patterns in the next ten to twenty years. Therefore, a sustainable scenario was recommended in the urbanization of Wuwei, and appropriate suggestions were also put forward for the policy makers.