A stochastic techno-economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S

EcoWillow 3.0S is a techno-economic analysis (TEA) tool that calculates realistic willow biomass production costs using data from field trials of willow production in New York State. The model represents the input parameters for diesel fuel price, wood price, and willow yield as data-derived probability distributions rather than as single values. This study uses EcoWillow 3.0S with Oracle Crystal Ball to perform a stochastic TEA of shrub willow production in the northeastern USA. Two outputs obtained from this model are a 24-year net present value (NPV) and minimum selling price (MSP) of shrub willow production under price and yield uncertainty. The MSP for dry willow ranges within a 95% confidence interval from $59-$102/Mg. The NPV, also within a 95% confidence interval, ranges from -$153 819 to $207 129 for 40 ha of willow harvested seven times over 24 years. The relevance of this study is to use the TEA methodology to assess the financial feasibility of shrub willow production as a bioenergy feedstock. The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field with NPV and MSP probability distributions on shrub willow production that have previously been absent from the refereed literature. Using data collected from field operations over a number of years, EcoWillow 3.0S captures some of the key inputs that influence the variation in the delivered cost of willow biomass crops. (c) 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd