THBS2/CA19-9 Detecting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma at Diagnosis Underperforms in Prediagnostic Detection: Implications for Biomarker Advancement

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed too late for effective therapy. The classic strategy for early detection biomarker advancement consists of initial retrospective phases of discovery and validation with tissue samples taken from individuals diagnosed with disease, compared with controls. Using this approach, we previously reported the discovery of a blood biomarker panel consisting of thrombospondin-2 (THBS2) and CA19-9 that together could discriminate resectable stage I and Ha PDAC as well as stages III and IV PDAC, with c-statistic values in the range of 0.96 to 0.97 in two phase II studies. We now report that in two studies of blood samples prospectively collected from 1 to 15 years prior to a PDAC diagnosis (Mayo Clinic and PLCO cohorts), THBS2 and/or CA19-9 failed to discriminate cases from healthy controls at the AUC - 0.8 needed. We conclude that PDAC progression may be heterogeneous and for some individuals can be more rapid than generally appreciated. It is important that PDAC early-detection studies incorporate high-risk, prospective prediagnostic cohorts into discovery and validation studies. Prevention Relevance: A blood biomarker panel of THBS2 and CA19-9 detects early stages of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma at diagnosis, but not when tested across a population up to 1 year earlier. Our findings suggest serial sampling over time, using prospectively collected samples for biomarker discovery, and more frequent screening of high-risk individuals.