On the relationship between police force presence and crime in Mexico: A spatial analysis

This study seeks to contribute to the literature on the deterrence effect of police on crime by looking at the dynamic between police force presence (number of officers) and criminal behavior on a state level in Mexico. In order to do this, we estimate a panel data pooled ordinary least-squares model, a spatial Durbin model, and a spatial error model to analyze the spatial distribution of police force presence and the behavior of two categories of robberies - street and non-street - between 2009 and 2017. Our results show a positive relationship between the number of assigned officers and criminal behavior; however, this correlation does not derive from either a transversal or temporal relationship between states. This result has implications for state security policies as it suggests that the deployment of police in high crime areas, although responsive in character, has no particular impact on criminal behavior.