A stochastic model simulating milk fever in a dairy herd

A simulation model was developed to evaluate the long-term effect of control strategies against milk fever (MF); here, we present the base model and sensitivity analyses. The representation of the within-herd dynamics was based on the existing SimHerd II model. Because of the relationships between MF and other diseases, the new model (called "SimHerd III") includes diseases common in a dairy herd. The cow level risk factors modelled were: base risk in the herd, parity, milk-yield potential, lactational disease recurrence, disease interrelationships, body condition and season. The diseases include clinical cases of MF, dystocia, downer-cow syndrome, retained placenta, metritis, displaced abomasum, ketosis and mastitis. The effects of diseases were represented by daily milk yield, daily body weight, daily feed intake, risk of stillbirth, conception probability, decision on culling, death and immediate removal. Simulated technical results showed that the herd effects of reduced risk of MF differed according to the reproductive efficiency in the herd. These interactions between reproduction efficiency and the effect of reduced base risk of MF were related to differences in how the simulated herds reacted to the reduction in replacements caused by MF. In the sensitivity analysis, eight potential key parameters were changed to their lowest and highest expected values retrieved from the literature. When measuring the sensitivity on milk production in the herd (as the economically most important technical effect), the model seemed most sensitive to the uncertainty of effect of MF on death risk and MF-recurrence risk. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.