The budget impact of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography

Introduction: Our earlier analysis indicated that screening lung cancer patients with low-dose computed tomography amongst smokers between age of 50-74 and between age of 55-74 is cost-effective and cost-saving, respectively. Objective: This study aims to extend the long-term cost-effectiveness analysis with short- and mid-term budget impact analysis. Method: The health economic model compares the cost of nationwide screening amongst smokers between 50-74 years to the current occasional screening policy. The analysis determines the size of the target population, recruitment rates and market uptake. Health care finance costs associated with the patient pathways are determined by national guidelines and clinical practice. Screening and treatment effectiveness are based on the HUNCHEST survey and international scientific literature, while the cost of health states and events are determined using national tariffs. Results: Assuming 10% uptake of low-dose computed tomography screening for the target population will cost an additional 3.3 billion HUF and 1.9 billion HUF in the 1st and 5th years, respectively. Until the 3rd year, new patients' treatment costs exceed costs due to late discovery and delay in treatment. This pattern is changing from the 4th year on. Due to timely care savings by the 10th year in the screened population will reduce total costs to the 20% of the first year costs. Conclusions: Introduction of national screening for lung cancer patients with low-dose computed tomography is estimated to cost around additional 2.6 billion HUF/year and could end up in net savings in the long run. Identification of risk groups according to regional or other strata could increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the program.