INTERACTIVE COMPUTER MODEL FOR AURORA FORECAST AND ANALYSIS

An interactive computer model of a short-term (with a horizon 30-70 min) forecast of aurora in-tensity has been developed in the form of a web-based geoinformation system. The OVATION-Prime empiri-cal model is used as the basic software, which establish-es statistical relationships between parameters of the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and auro-ral particle fluxes. On the basis of this model, a system has been built which simulates the spatial planetary dis-tribution of the probability of observing auroras and a number of accompanying quantities. Data visualization is carried out on the basis of the virtual globe technolo-gy and is provided to the end user via a specialized web service. The forecast has been verified by comparing the model predictions with the data from 16 cameras con-ducting continuous observations of the auroras in the visible spectrum. The proportion of coincidences be-tween the predicted and observed auroras was 86 %. The developed service enables both forecasting and analysis of past events. The system allows us to com-pare the spatial distribution of probability of auroras with railway transport systems for the territory of the Russian Federation.