Future urban climate projection in a tropical megacity based on global climate change and local urbanization scenarios

被引：39
|
作者：
Darmanto, Nisrina Setyo [1 ]
Varquez, Alvin Christopher Galang [1 ]
Kawano, Natsumi [2 ]
Kanda, Manabu [1 ]
机构：
[1] Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Transdisciplinary Sci & Engn, Meguro Ku, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 1528552, Japan
[2] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Reg Environm Res, Reg Atmospher Modeling Sect, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
来源：
URBAN CLIMATE | 2019年 / 29卷
关键词：
Climate change; Representative concentration pathways; Shared concentration pathways; Urban climate modeling; Urbanization; ENERGY-BALANCE MODEL; HEAT-ISLAND; ROUGHNESS PARAMETERS; BUILDING ARRAYS; CANOPY MODEL; IMPACTS; CITY; TOKYO; EXPANSION; STRESS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100482
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
The effects of urbanization on the future atmospheric environments of cities worldwide remain uncertain in the context of climate change. We introduce a general method for modeling the effects of climate change and urbanization that can be applied to any city and apply the model to Greater Jakarta megacity. Global climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were coupled with distributed urbanization scenarios (compact and business-as-usual (BaU), based on projections of future urban morphology and anthropogenic heating) in a mesoscale weather model. Despite the predominant influence of global effects, the urban effects of individual grids were spatially varied. The highest temperature increase caused by RCP8.5&BaU scenario was detected in the northwestern outskirts of Jakarta. Meanwhile, the projected temperature was one-third lower in the RCP2.6&Compact scenario. Overall, this study offers a general method for projecting future urban climates, not only for Jakarta but also for other megacities in developing countries.
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页数：11
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