Modelling initial attack success on forest fires suppressed by air attack in the province of Ontario, Canada

被引:3
|
作者
Wheatley, Melanie [1 ]
Wotton, B. Mike [1 ,2 ]
Woolford, Douglas G. [3 ]
Martell, David L. [1 ]
Johnston, Joshua M. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Toronto, John H Daniels Fac Architecture Landscape & Desig, Inst Forestry & Conservat, Toronto, ON M5S 3B3, Canada
[2] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
[3] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
aerial suppression; airtankers; fire behaviour; fire containment; fire management; fire suppression effectiveness; fire weather indices; logistic regression; AUSTRALIAN FOREST; CONTAINMENT; TIME; AREA;
D O I
10.1071/WF22006
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
Airtankers are often used on initial attack (IA) to suppress unwanted wildland fires quickly and contain them before they grow large. Skimmer airtankers are commonly used in the province of Ontario owing to its abundance of waterbodies. We examined the influence of airtanker use on IA success on fires actioned by air attack in Ontario using historical fire records and developed three statistical models to estimate the probability of IA success using information available at three different times during the fire response process. These models include information available to the fire management agency at the time the fire was reported, when IA began and during the IA suppression operations. Our findings indicate that the situational information about a fire obtained during IA provides better estimates of the probability of IA success, as demonstrated by increases in the predictive accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve compared with a model that is based only on information available at the time a fire is reported. Our results can inform pre-suppression planning and suppression resource allocation decision-making, particularly on days during which many new fires are expected to be reported.
引用
收藏
页码:774 / 785
页数:12
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