Local order, entropy and predictability of financial time series

被引:63
|
作者
Molgedey, L [1 ]
Ebeling, W [1 ]
机构
[1] Humboldt Univ, Inst Phys, D-10115 Berlin, Germany
来源
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B | 2000年 / 15卷 / 04期
关键词
D O I
10.1007/s100510051178
中图分类号
O469 [凝聚态物理学];
学科分类号
070205 ;
摘要
We consider time series of financial data as the Dow Jones Index with respect to the existence of local order. The basic idea is that in spite of the high stochasticity in average there might be special local situations where there local order exist and the predictability is considerably higher than in average. In order to check this assumption we discretise the time series and investigate the frequency of the continuation of definite words of length n first. We prove the existence of relatively long-range correlations under special conditions. The higher order Shannon entropies and the conditional entropies (dynamical entropies) are calculated, characteristic fluctuations are found. Instead of the dynamic entropies which yield mean values of the uncertainty/predictability we finally investigate the local values of the uncertainty/predictability and the distribution of these quantities.
引用
收藏
页码:733 / 737
页数:5
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Predictability in time series
    Salvino, LW
    Cawley, R
    Grebogi, C
    Yorke, JA
    [J]. PHYSICS LETTERS A, 1995, 209 (5-6) : 327 - 332
  • [22] Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks
    Zhou, Renjie
    Yang, Chen
    Wan, Jian
    Zhang, Wei
    Guan, Bo
    Xiong, Naixue
    [J]. SENSORS, 2017, 17 (04)
  • [23] The entropy as a tool for analysing statistical dependences in financial time series
    Darbellay, GA
    Wuertz, D
    [J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2000, 287 (3-4) : 429 - 439
  • [24] Multifractal Diffusion Entropy Analysis: Applications to Financial Time Series
    Jizba, Petr
    Korbel, Jan
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL WORK-CONFERENCE ON TIME SERIES (ITISE 2014), 2014, : 87 - 96
  • [25] Multiscale analysis of financial time series by Renyi distribution entropy
    Xu, Meng
    Shang, Pengjian
    Zhang, Sheng
    [J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2019, 536
  • [26] Multiscale multifractal diffusion entropy analysis of financial time series
    Huang, Jingjing
    Shang, Pengjian
    [J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2015, 420 : 221 - 228
  • [27] MAXIMUM-ENTROPY SCATTERING MODELS FOR FINANCIAL TIME SERIES
    Leonarduzzi, Roberto
    Rochette, Gaspar
    Bouchaud, Jean-Philhpe
    Mallat, Stephane
    [J]. 2019 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ACOUSTICS, SPEECH AND SIGNAL PROCESSING (ICASSP), 2019, : 5496 - 5500
  • [28] Quantifying the Multiscale Predictability of Financial Time Series by an Information-Theoretic Approach
    Zhao, Xiaojun
    Liang, Chenxu
    Zhang, Na
    Shang, Pengjian
    [J]. ENTROPY, 2019, 21 (07)
  • [29] Multiscale fractional-order approximate entropy analysis of financial time series based on the cumulative distribution matrix
    Yue Teng
    Pengjian Shang
    Jiayi He
    [J]. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2019, 97 : 1067 - 1085
  • [30] Multiscale fractional-order approximate entropy analysis of financial time series based on the cumulative distribution matrix
    Teng, Yue
    Shang, Pengjian
    He, Jiayi
    [J]. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS, 2019, 97 (02) : 1067 - 1085