Allocation of carbon intensity targets for 2020: an exploration of energy conservation potential in China

China is on a critical stage of energy conservation and has declared its ambitious target to reduce carbon intensity by 40-45% in 2020. Proper and equitable allocation of the goals among provinces will help to fulfill this target more effectively. In this paper, we estimated the energy potential in 30 provinces after classifying them into four convergence clusters and set benchmark for each cluster. Based on the rank of benchmark and energy-saving potential, together with the economy development characters and accumulative historical performance, we propose a reasonable allocation both for the short-term 12th five year targets and the long-term 2020 target.