DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF CHINA'S CARBON INTENSITY AND ENERGY INTENSITY EVALUATION FOCUSING ON INDUSTRY AND ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENTS BY 2020

Along with the rapid economic development of China, the large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has become constraint on future sustainable development. The Chinese government has established a series of policies to come with the high CO2-emission resulting from economic development with the target to reduce its carbon intensity (CO2-emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)) by 40-45%, and to decrease the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 20% by the year 2020, compared with 2005 levels. Industry and energy structure adjustment are the most important factors that impact on a low carbon economy, and therefore, it is necessary to pursue a comprehensive evaluation of carbon and energy intensity changes with a focus on their influences. This study aims to offer results from a comprehensive simulation modelling of China's economic development, CO2-emission, and energy flows. Through a dynamic simulation analysis based on LINGO programming, our study suggests that the carbon intensity and energy intensity in China can be reduced with 43% and 46%, respectively, while maintaining an 8% GDP annual growth rate, a proper adjustment on industry structure in term of primary, secondary and tertiary shares according to a ratio to 6: 34: 60, and an increase in non-fossil energy's share to 15% in 2020. Dynamic simulation appears to be an effective approach for assessing environmental impacts and sustainable development.