Optimizing the Energy Production Infrastructure Considering Uncertainty in Fossil Resource Availability

Fossil sources scarcity and environmental contamination are the major factors that put the energy industry into focus. Considering the lack of accuracy in fossil reserves, we propose an optimization model to plan investments in the Argentinean energy structure taking into account uncertainty in the fossil source availability. Tactical decisions, such as the amount of primary and secondary sources produced, are included and the emission of greenhouse gases is penalized in the objective function to improve the environmental impact of the energy structure. Also, two different methods are used to model uncertainty. Fuzzy set theory is applied to generate scenarios that show the random behavior of resource availability parameters. In addition, a two-stage stochastic model is proposed to integrate the different decision levels involved in the problem and represent resource availability uncertainty in fossil fuels. Both approaches complement each other to obtain a comprehensive solution of the energy planning problem.