Simulating competition among heavy-duty zero-emissions vehicles under different infrastructure conditions

It is highly uncertain which zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) drivetrains are most suitable for heavyduty trucks and there is little exploration of how these technologies might compete in the longterm. We used a dynamic model representing technology, cost, and behavioral parameters to simulate adoption of various drivetrains, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), in the short- and long-haul sectors using the case study of British Columbia, Canada. Scenarios included a ZEV mandate, various levels of refueling infrastructure deployment, and representation of social and technical uncertainty through Monte Carlo. For short-haul trucks, BEVs and FCVs tend to dominate, depending on supported infrastructure. For long-haul trucks, plug-in hybrid diesel and FCVs are more likely to dominate sales. Results indicate substantial uncertainty in the suitability of different ZEV drivetrains, potential for multiple options to capture the majority of market share, and potential for the prioritized infrastructure to strongly influence adoption.