Model-based analysis using REML for inference from systematically sampled data on soil

The general linear model encompasses statistical methods such as regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) which are commonly used by soil scientists. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) method for estimating the parameters of the general linear model is a design-based method that requires that the data have been collected according to an appropriate randomized sample design. Soil data are often obtained by systematic sampling on transects or grids, so OLS methods are not appropriate. Parameters of the general linear model can be estimated from systematically sampled data by model-based methods. Parameters of a model of the covariance structure of the error are estimated, then used to estimate the remaining parameters of the model with known variance. Residual maximum likelihood (REML) is the best way to estimate the variance parameters since it is unbiased. We present the REML solution to this problem. We then demonstrate how REML can be used to estimate parameters for regression and ANOVA-type models using data from two systematic surveys of soil. We compare an efficient, gradient-based implementation of REML (ASReml) with an implementation that uses simulated annealing. In general the results were very similar; where they differed the error covariance model had a spherical variogram function which can have local optima in its likelihood function. The simulated annealing results were better than the gradient method in this case because simulated annealing is good at escaping local optima.