Two-year longitudinal study of alcohol expectancies and drinking among Norwegian adolescents

Aims. The potential importance of alcohol outcome expectancies in the initiation and maintenance of drinking has been supported by studies showing that these expectancies are present before drinking begins, and that they predict drinking both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Although initiation of drinking behavior may be influenced by expectancy, subsequent drinking experience may modify expectations. We used structural modeling techniques to investigate the relative influence of expectancy and drinking in a three-wave longitudinal study of Norwegian adolescents. Design. Survey incorporating self-administered questionnaires. Setting. Twenty-two schools in Hordaland County on the west coast of Norway. Participants. Nine hundred and twenty-four seventh-grade students; 45.7% female. Measurements. Alcohol use (frequency, quantity, drunkenness); the Norwegian version of the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire for adolescents. Findings. Among students who were already drinkers upon entry into the study, expectations of positive social effects of alcohol predicted drinking longitudinally. Among those who began drinking during the study, these social expectancies predicted drinking initiation, but drinking also influenced subsequent expectancy in the early stages of drinking. Conclusions. These results support a reciprocal relationship of drinking to positive expectancy, highlighting the importance both of expectancies on influencing drinking, and of early drinking experiences on the development of positive expectancies.