Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects

被引:10
|
作者
Pannell, David J. [1 ]
Gibson, Fiona L. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Western Australia, Sch Agr & Resource Econ, Ctr Environm Econ & Policy, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
benefit:cost analysis; costs; decision theory; economics; uncertainty; CONSERVATION; INDEXES; LAND; PROGRAMS;
D O I
10.1111/cobi.12628
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Conservation decision makers commonly use project-scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often highup to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted-additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real-world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30-50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics. El Costo Ambiental de Usar Medidas de Decision Inadecuadas para Priorizar Proyectos Ambientales Quienes toman las decisiones de conservacion comunmente usan medidas de puntuacion de proyectos, las cuales son inconsistentes con la teoria sobre la categorizacion optima de proyectos. Como resultado, frecuentemente puede haber una perdida de beneficios ambientales. Estimamos las magnitudes de estas perdidas para varias medidas que se desviaron de la teoria en formas comunes en la practica. Estas medidas incluyeron casos en los que algunas variables relevantes fueron omitidas de la medida de beneficios, en los que se omitieron los costos del proyecto y los beneficios se calcularon con una forma funcional inadecuada. Estimamos las distribuciones de los parametros para 129 proyectos ambientales en Australia, Nueva Zelanda e Italia, a los que se les habian completado previamente analisis detallados. El costo de usar medidas de priorizacion inadecuadas (en terminos de valores ambientales perdidos) fue frecuentemente alto - hasta 80% en los escenarios que examinamos. El costo fue mayor cuando el presupuesto era menor. Los errores mas costosos fueron la omision de la informacion sobre los valores ambientales (hasta 31% de perdida de los valores ambientales), la omision del costo del proyecto (hasta 35% de perdida), la omision de la efectividad de las acciones de manejo (hasta 9% de perdida) y el uso de una medida de decision de anadido sopesado para variables que deberian ser multiplicadas (hasta 23% de perdida). Los ultimos tres son errores que ocurren comunmente en las medidas de decision del mundo real, y combinadas, frecuentemente reducen los beneficios potenciales de la inversion en la conservacion en un 30-50%. La incertidumbre sobre los valores de los parametros tambien redujo los beneficios de las inversiones en los proyectos de conservacion pero generalmente no por tanto como con las medidas inadecuadas de priorizacion. Resumen
引用
收藏
页码:382 / 391
页数:10
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