WEATHER RISKS AS DRIVERS OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN AGRICULTURE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The climate trend today is reflected in the national, regional and sectoral socio-economic strategies of both developed and developing countries. Most often, the climate trend is presented in the form of predicted values of temperature increase on the Earth's surface by 1.5-2.0 degrees and the facts of the occurrence of the most probable weather risks. Practice shows that when making forecasts of socio-economic development, adverse hydrometeorological phenomena are not included in the system of significant and naturally occurring factors. Therefore, they do not find the necessary reflection in strategic documents. At the same time, weather anomalies systematically cause material and economic damage. The authors put forward a hypothesis about the significance of the factor of dangerous weather phenomena in the system of climatic factors that determine the level of agricultural production development and structural changes in the branches of the agro-industrial complex. The scientific task, to which the study is directed, is to establish a causal relationship between climatic parameters and production and economic indicators of the efficiency of the crop sub-sector. For this, a unique database was collected, which included values systematized by types of weather anomalies over the past 30 years in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This made it possible to determine the most typical dangerous weather phenomena for different regions that cause material damage. In the sub-sector of crop production, these are wind, heavy rains, extreme fire hazard and a combination of these phenomena. A clear relationship has been established between their number and the dynamics of crop production. The most vulnerable categories of producers to each type of hazardous weather phenomena have been identified. The relationship between climatic variables and economic efficiency of the crop production sub-sector is determined. The results of the analysis will serve as a justification for the need to take into account dangerous weather phenomena in the system of the most meaningful trends when predicting the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security of the country. This will contribute to the development of relevant sectoral and regional adaptation strategies in the face of the onset of the most probable natural and climatic risks.