Statistical analysis of intermittent volcanic tremor associated with the September 1989 summit explosive eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily

The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanying the 1989 September eruption at the south-cast summit crater of Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusing on the regular intermittent behaviour found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student' t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch 'regularly' refilled from depth is suggested. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.