“Failed” eruptions revealed by pattern classification analysis of gas emission and volcanic tremor data at Mt. Etna, Italy

During the spring of 2007, paroxysmal activity occurred at the Southeast Crater of Mt. Etna, always associated with sharp rises in the amplitude of the volcanic tremor. Activity ranged from strong Strombolian explosions to lava fountains coupled with copious emission of lava flows and tephra. During inter-eruptive periods, recurrent seismic unrest episodes were observed in the form of temporary enhancements of the volcanic tremor amplitude, but they did not culminate in eruptive activity. Here, we present the results of an analysis of these inter-eruptive periods by integrating seismic volcanic tremor, in-soil radon, plume SO2 flux, and thermal data. SO2 flux and thermal radiation are envisaged as the “smoking gun,” and certifying that changes in seismic or radon data can be considered as volcanogenic. Short-term changes were investigated by pattern classification based on Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering on volcanic tremor, radon, and ambient parameters (pressure and temperature). Our results unveil “failed” eruptions between February and April 2007 that are explained as ascending magma batches, which triggered repeated episodes of gas pulses and rock fracturing, but that failed to reach the surface.