CO2 emissions in China: analysis based on factor decomposition method

This paper reports on factor decomposition for historical CO2 emissions volume and carbon intensity in China from 1980-2010 using the logarithmic mean divisia index method. The results show that total economic output was always the dominant factor accounting for the growth of CO2 emissions, and it was also the most stable factor. Energy intensity promoted the carbon emissions reduction factor during every period, although it contributed very little during the 10th Five Year Plan (FYP). Industrial structure promoted carbon emissions reduction during 6th, 7th, 9th, and 11th FYPs, but the contribution was relatively small. During the 8d1 and 10th FYPs, the structure effect became a contributing factor to the growth of carbon emissions. As for carbon intensity, industrial structure promoted a lower carbon intensity factor during 6th, 7th 9th and 11th FYPs, but the contribution was relatively small. During other periods, industrial structure became a contributing factor to the growth of carbon intensity. Based on these results, the key to energy conservation in the future lies in industrial structure adjustment, especially the development of the tertiary industry. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.