The effect of competing risks on astronaut and cosmonaut mortality

被引:8
|
作者
Reynolds, Robert J. [1 ]
Day, Steven M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Mortal Res & Consulting Inc, 17700 Castleton St,Suite 586, City Of Industry, CA 91748 USA
关键词
Mortality; Survival; Bias; Accidents; Astronauts; Cosmonauts; RUSSIAN COSMONAUTS; HEALTH; SOVIET;
D O I
10.1016/j.lssr.2018.05.006
中图分类号
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号
0704 ;
摘要
Astronauts and cosmonauts have been reported to be at substantially lower age-specific risk of death from chronic disease (primarily heart disease and cancers) in comparison to the general populations of the United States and Russia, respectively. Yet, both groups have been at greater age-specific risk of death from external causes, mainly due to plane crashes and spacecraft accidents. In this study we tested the hypothesis that the reported reductions in mortality from natural causes result, to some degree, from survival bias created by early deaths from external causes. Statistical comparisons of baseline characteristics between cause-of-death groups showed no significant differences. Cause-specific survival curves showed no difference in long-term mortality from external causes among either astronauts or cosmonauts compared to Kaplan-Meier curves with censoring for competing causes. Cause-specific survival curves for natural causes suggested a possible upward bias in mortality estimates published thus far for both groups of space explorers. Differences in survival between Kaplan-Meier curves and the causespecific survival curves were 7% and 5% for astronauts and cosmonauts respectively after 55 years. The data do not support the hypothesis that observed reductions in mortality from natural causes are due in whole or in part to bias created by deaths from external causes at young ages. The data imply that reports of cause-specific mortality for astronauts and cosmonauts may in fact systematically overestimate mortality rates, though these findings should be interpreted with caution as the data are thin at the extremes of follow-up time.
引用
收藏
页码:35 / 41
页数:7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine:: validity, competing risks and cohort effects
    Shkolnikov, VM
    McKee, M
    Vallin, J
    Aksel, E
    Leon, D
    Chenet, L
    Meslé, F
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 1999, 28 (01) : 19 - 29
  • [22] Competing risks
    Jason Fine
    Bo Henry Lindqvist
    [J]. Lifetime Data Analysis, 2014, 20 : 159 - 160
  • [23] COMPETING MORTALITY RISKS IN ELDERLY MEN WITH PROSTATE CANCER IN THE UNITED STATES
    Alam, Muhammad
    Norez, Daniel
    Kumar, Jatinder
    Tanneru, Karthik
    Gautam, Shiva
    Koochekpour, Shahriar
    Jazayeri, Behzad
    Bazargani, Soroush
    Nguyen, Sabine
    Ganapathi, Hariharan Palayapalayam
    Bandyk, Mark
    Costa, Joseph
    Marino, Robert
    Balaji, K. C.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 2020, 203 : E266 - E267
  • [24] VARIATION IN COMMUNICATION OF COMPETING RISKS OF MORTALITY IN PROSTATE CANCER TREATMENT CONSULTATIONS
    Naser-Tavakolian, Aurash
    Gale, Rebecca
    Luu, Michael
    Venkataramana, Abhishek
    Khodyakov, Dmitry
    Anger, Jennifer
    Posadas, Edwin
    Sandler, Howard
    Spiegel, Brennan
    Freedland, Stephen
    Daskivich, Timothy
    [J]. JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 2022, 207 (05): : E423 - E423
  • [25] Evaluating mortality in intensive care units: contribution of competing risks analyses
    Resche-Rigon, Matthieu
    Azoulay, Elie
    Chevret, Sylvie
    [J]. CRITICAL CARE, 2006, 10 (01):
  • [27] Survival and competing mortality risks of mountain lions in a major metropolitan area
    Benson, John F.
    Sikich, Jeff A.
    Riley, Seth P. D.
    [J]. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION, 2020, 241
  • [28] Risk Factors for Mortality in the Nurses' Health Study: A Competing Risks Analysis
    Baer, Heather J.
    Glynn, Robert J.
    Hu, Frank B.
    Hankinson, Susan E.
    Willett, Walter C.
    Colditz, Graham A.
    Stampfer, Meir
    Rosner, Bernard
    [J]. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2011, 173 (03) : 319 - 329
  • [29] Competing risks analysis of lamb mortality in a terminal sire composite population
    Southey, BB
    Rodríguez-Zas, SL
    Leymaster, KA
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCE, 2004, 82 (10) : 2892 - 2899
  • [30] Variation in Communication of Competing Risks of Mortality in Prostate Cancer Treatment Consultations
    Daskivich, Timothy J.
    Gale, Rebecca
    Luu, Michael
    Naser-Tavakolian, Aurash
    Venkataramana, Abhi
    Khodyakov, Dmitry
    Anger, Jennifer T.
    Posadas, Edwin
    Sandler, Howard
    Spiegel, Brennan
    Freedland, Stephen J.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 2022, 208 (02): : 301 - +