Global Output Gap and Domestic Inflation in China

被引：0
|
作者：
Zhang, Chengsi [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Ji, Xingchen [2 ]
Dai, Wensheng [2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] China Finance 40 Forum, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Renmin Univ China, Sch Finance, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Renmin Univ China, China Financial Policy Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源：
PANOECONOMICUS | 2017年 / 64卷 / 01期
关键词：
Globalization; Inflation; Output gap; China; GLOBALIZATION; POLICY;
D O I：
10.2298/PAN150402034Z
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper evaluates whether globalization has led to greater sensitivity of Chinese consumer price inflation to the global output gap. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1995-2012. The global output gap is measured by weighted output gap of China's top eighteen trading partners. Estimating Phillips curve models and vector autoregressive models, we find that global capacity constraints have both explanatory and predictive power for domestic consumer price inflation in China. Therefore, the central bank of China should react to developments in global output gaps.
引用
收藏
页码：17 / 30
页数：14
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