Demography, national savings, and international capital flows

This paper addresses the relationship between age distribution, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six per cent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, is likely to be substantially larger over the coming decades.