A monitoring model for the system with linear parameter relationship

According to the linear relationship between input and output in a system this paper derives a time series analysics model ARC(2) with constant coefficients and orders. This model is fit to a system with linear parameter relationship. For a system with nonlinear parameter relationship because the model is not fit, the residue got from the model is great. So residue square sum can be used for monitoring the system parameter relationship whether linear or working in a line:lr range. By this model it can be avoided that tediously calculating for modeling and producing errors in modeling. Therefore monitoring speed and accuracy are improved obviously. Because universal property this model can he used for monitoring any kind system with linear parameter relatipnship without a self-study system.