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- [33] Evaluating factors leading to term admissions into the neonatal unit[J]. BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY, 2021, 128 : 118 - 118Ellis, L.Riad, D.Imessaoudene, S.Farah, R.Modi, M.
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application-the term spread
被引：3
|作者：
Stekler, Herman O.
[1
]
Ye, Tianyu
[1
]
机构：
[1] George Washington Univ, Dept Econ, Washington, DC 20052 USA
关键词：
Leading series;
ROC curve;
Precision-Recall curve;
Yield spread puzzle;
PREDICTING US RECESSIONS;
YIELD CURVE;
FORECASTING RECESSIONS;
VARIABLES;
PUZZLE;
POWER;
MODEL;
D O I：
10.1007/s00181-016-1200-7
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper analyzes the procedures that have previously been used to evaluate indicators. These methods determine whether the indicator correctly classifies periods when there was (not) a recession. These approaches do not show whether or not an indicator signaled a turn or failed to predict it. This paper then presents a new approach and applies it to the term spread series. The results are mixed because the indicator predicts every recession but also generates a large number of false signals. This result may explain why economists do not always place great weight on this series.
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页码：183 / 194
页数：12
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