Technology Life Cycle Forecasting of Chinese Hydraulic Components Based on Patent Analysis

In the current research related to the forecasting of the technology life cycle, the S-curve is fitted based on historical data for a particular technology, then the technology life cycle is forecast according to the fitting parameters. However, in the whole development process of a technology, it may contain multiple S-curves, only using a single S curve fitting is impossible to get the forecasting results accurately. In this study, the patent data of the hydraulic components of China and the other countries are compared, and the difference between the development stage of them is analyzed. From the analysis result of the other countries, it has been found that there may be appeared more than one S curve in the technology life cycle of hydraulic component, when the development of the technology is still in its early stage, only through the existing data is difficult to accurately predict the technology life cycle. Therefore, the comprehensive solution which combine with the development stage and the S curve inflection point analysis are presented in this paper, which can forecast the technology life cycle of Chinese hydraulic components accurately.