Vulnerability of the agricultural systems of Argentina to climate change

Agricultural production is one of the pillars of the Argentinean economy. The contribution of this sector is expected to keep growing in the near future as a consequence of the current technological development trend. However, the projected changes in climate and in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the coming years is likely to affect the productivity of crops, thus causing an impact on the national economy. This paper addresses climate change impact on the production of the main crops of the Argentinean pampean region by means of crop growth and development simulation models for wheat, maize and soybean included in DSSAT v. 3.0 (Dension Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu). The weather data used includes temperature, global solar radiation and precipitation values from 23 sites within the region (current climate conditions) and the corresponding GISS general circulation model projections for the year 2050 (future climate) with CO2 concentrations of 330 and 550 ppm respectively. According to the results obtained, a generalized increase in soybean yield and a decrease in maize yield would occur. Wheat yield is likely to increase in the southern and the western parts of the region and decrease towards the north. Wheat and soybean production in the pampean region would increase by 3.6 and 20.7% respectively, while maize production would be reduced by 16.5%.