Life cycle performance goals for civil infrastructure: intergenerational risk-informed decisions

Civil infrastructure facilities play a central role in the economic, social and political health of modern society. Such facilities are susceptible to ageing, which is stochastic in nature and makes their reliabilities time dependent. Life-cycle engineering analysis and risk-informed decision tools have advanced in recent years for managing public investments in performance assurance and risk mitigation of civil infrastructure. However, certain civil infrastructure projects may be designed for service periods that are substantially longer than what has been typically expected of buildings, bridges and similar facilities, extending the potential consequences of life-cycle engineering decisions far beyond the limits for which there is practical experience. Current assessment procedures will require modification to evaluate performance of civil infrastructure facilities over extended time frames and to support sustainable and equitable decisions affecting long-term public safety. This paper considers a number of key issues that must be addressed in life-cycle reliability assessment of civil infrastructure facilities that must remain functional for service periods of several generations, and introduces perspectives on risk that are germane to ensure sustainability and intergenerational equity in risk-informed decision-making.