A New Long-term Generation Planning Tool for Low-carbon Economy

This paper presents a computationally efficient optimization model that finds the long-term generation expansion for low-carbon economy. The model incorporates investment and retirement of generation, CO2 emissions polices, and power system physical constraints. The tool is used to simulate generation planning over a ten-year forecast horizon. The dual simplex linear programming algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem for 12 typical hour-types in each year that meets reliability criteria. Two scenarios are tested that consider subsidies for renewables and CO2 emissions regulation. High and low gas price trends are also simulated and have small impacts on CO2 emissions. Low gas prices with cap-and-trade reduce carbon emissions the most. Extensive retirement of coal-fired power plants occurs in all cases.