Multi-phase algorithm design for accurate and efficient model fitting

Recent research applies soft computing techniques to fit software reliability growth models. However, runtime performance and the distribution of the distance from an optimal solution over multiple runs must be explicitly considered to justify the practical utility of these approaches, promote comparison, and support reproducible research. This paper presents a meta-optimization framework to design stable and efficient multi-phase algorithms for fitting software reliability growth models. The approach combines initial parameter estimation techniques from statistical algorithms, the global search properties of soft computing, and the rapid convergence of numerical methods. Designs that exhibit the best balance between runtime performance and accuracy are identified. The approach is illustrated through nonhomogeneous Poisson process and covariate software reliability growth models, including a cross-validation step on data sets not used to identify designs. The results indicate the nonhomogeneous Poisson process model considered is too simple to benefit from soft computing because it incurs additional runtime with no increase in accuracy attained. However, a multi-phase design for the covariate software reliability growth model consisting of the bat algorithm followed by a numerical method achieves better performance and converges consistently, compared to a numerical method only. The proposed approach supports higher-dimensional covariate software reliability growth model fitting suitable for implementation in a tool.