A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise

被引：963
|
作者：
Rahmstorf, Stefan [1 ]
机构：
[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
来源：
SCIENCE | 2007年 / 315卷 / 5810期
关键词：
ocean;
D O I：
10.1126/science.1135456
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per degrees C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
引用
收藏
页码：368 / 370
页数：3
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