ESTIMATING FUTURE SEA-LEVEL EXTREMES UNDER CONDITIONS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

Standard techniques of extreme event analysis involve making the assumption that future annual maxima can be approximated as independent random variables from a common distribution. This approach is not applicable to the investigation of future extreme sea levels, given the possibility of greenhouse-related sea level rise. Instead, design criteria for coastal structures must allow for future maxima to be generated from a sequence of different distributions. Analysis is still quite straightforward in principle, and attention is drawn to some basic statistical results for generating design estimates when the distributions of maxima differ just in the magnitude of the location parameter. An example from Adelaide, South Australia, is used to illustrate the generation and application of predictive models under the multi-distributional framework. Given sea level rise, quantiles of extreme magnitudes are suggested as being of more practical value in design work than return period magnitudes. © 1990.