First-Order Seismic Loss Assessment at Urban Scale: A Case Study of Skopje, North Macedonia

Relatively simple method for seismic loss assessment is presented based on probabilistic hazard, event scenarios and local building inventory. EMS98-dependent vulnerability model is transformed to continuous fragility functions correlating damage probability to peak ground acceleration. The proposed method illustrated over 59,950 inventoried buildings and evaluated with replacement cost of $25.5B. For a repeat of the M6.1 1963 earthquake, simulations predict immediate losses of about $6.8B and 1,908 red-tagged buildings, compared to about $5B and 15,800 red-tagged building at the time. Average losses from probabilistic scenarios range from $1.6B (return period of 100y) to $17.8B (10,000y).