Scenarios for evaluation of technology development options for power generation equipment

Several national and international organizations publish long term studies of possible future evolutions of primary and final energy consumption, installed power generation, adoption of new energy technologies and greenhouse gas emissions, for example, in the form of 'scenarios'. Which scenario or combination of scenarios will come true depends on many factors, not least the choice of technologies to be developed and the amount of resources put into the development of the chosen technologies. Power generation equipment manufacturers thus have a strong influence on how the future of the energy world will unfold, through their technological choices and the investments they make to develop the technologies. However their own future also depends on how external factors evolve, including, for example, public opinion, economics, population growth, competitor technologies etc., which are also considered in the aforementioned scenarios. In this paper a discussion is made of the aspects of scenarios described in the literature that are relevant for technology strategic management within the time scales usually considered by commercial organizations. As a result, two scenarios are proposed, based on those presented by the International Energy Agency and on data from other sources.