Multidecadal trends in aerosol radiative forcing over the Arctic: Contribution of changes in anthropogenic aerosol to Arctic warming since 1980

被引：71

作者：

Breider, Thomas J. ^{[1
]}

Mickley, Loretta J. ^{[1
]}

Jacob, Daniel J. ^{[1
]}

Ge, Cui ^{[2
,3
]}

Wang, Jun ^{[2
,3
]}

Sulprizio, Melissa Payer ^{[1
]}

Croft, Betty ^{[4
]}

Ridley, David A. ^{[5
]}

McConnell, Joseph R. ^{[6
]}

Sharma, Sangeeta ^{[7
]}

Husain, Liaquat ^{[8
]}

Dutkiewicz, Vincent A. ^{[8
]}

Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos ^{[9
]}

Skov, Henrik ^{[10
]}

Hopke, Phillip K. ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] Univ Iowa, Ctr Global & Reg Environm Res, Iowa City, IA USA

[3] Univ Iowa, Dept Chem & Biochem Engn, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA

[4] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Phys & Atmospher Sci, Halifax, NS, Canada

[5] MIT, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[6] Desert Res Inst, Reno, NV USA

[7] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Atmospher Sci & Technol Directorate, Toronto, ON, Canada

[8] SUNY Albany, Atmospher Sci Res Ctr, Albany, NY 12222 USA

[9] NCSR Demokritos, Environm Radioact Lab, INRaSTES, Athens, Greece

[10] Aarhus Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Arctic Res Ctr, Roskilde, Denmark

[11] Clarkson Univ, Ctr Air Resources Engn & Sci, Potsdam, NY USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES | 2017年 / 122卷 / 06期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Arctic; aerosol; trends; radiative forcing; anthropogenic; aerosol-radiation interactions; BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS; LONG-TERM TRENDS; BLACK CARBON; CLIMATE RESPONSE; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; ICE-CORE; TRANSPORT; SULFATE; AIRCRAFT; TROPOSPHERE;

D O I：

10.1002/2016JD025321

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Arctic observations show large decreases in the concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols since the early 1980s. These near-term climate-forcing pollutants perturb the radiative balance of the atmosphere and may have played an important role in recent Arctic warming. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3-D representation of Arctic aerosols that is generally consistent with observations and their trends from 1980 to 2010. Observations at Arctic surface sites show significant decreases in sulfate and BC mass concentrations of 2-3% per year. We find that anthropogenic aerosols yield a negative forcing over the Arctic, with an average 2005-2010 Arctic shortwave radiative forcing (RF) of -0.190.05Wm(-2) at the top of atmosphere (TOA). Anthropogenic sulfate in our study yields more strongly negative forcings over the Arctic troposphere in spring (-1.170.10Wm(-2)) than previously reported. From 1980 to 2010, TOA negative RF by Arctic aerosol declined, from -0.670.06Wm(-2) to -0.190.05Wm(-2), yielding a net TOA RF of +0.48 +/- 0.06Wm(-2). The net positive RF is due almost entirely to decreases in anthropogenic sulfate loading over the Arctic. We estimate that 1980-2010 trends in aerosol-radiation interactions over the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have contributed a net warming at the Arctic surface of +0.27 +/- 0.04K, roughly one quarter of the observed warming. Our study does not consider BC emissions from gas flaring nor the regional climate response to aerosol-cloud interactions or BC deposition on snow.

引用

页码：3573 / 3594

页数：22