Assessing the impact of extreme adverse weather on the biological traits of a European storm petrel colony

Climate change affects the climatic disturbance patterns and regimes and is altering the frequency and intensity of subtropical cyclones. These events can affect population dynamics of seabirds (e.g., survival, reproduction). In this work we tested the effect of adverse weather on a colony of European storm petrels (Hydrobates pelagicus) located in a small islet (Aketx) in northern Spain. Over a long-term monitoring period (1993-2014) we ringed 3728 petrels. From 2003 onwards we also monitored breeding success, the percentage of immature individuals and moult scores. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and Underhill and Zucchini models to analyze the effects of climatic conditions on a number of biological traits (survival, breeding parameters, moulting patterns). Our analyses revealed a constant value of adult survival over the 26-year monitoring period. Recapture probability, however, tended to be positively influenced by NAO conditions in spring, and negatively influenced by NAO conditions in winter (although this would only affect to a fraction of first-captured birds). Moreover, the impact of adverse weather, especially in 2011 and 2014, resulted in an increasing proportion of yearlings in the breeding population, a lower breeding success and a delayed onset of moult. These effects were similar to those observed during the Prestige oil spill catastrophe.