Describing the COVID-19 outbreak during the lockdown: fitting modified SIR models to data

被引：18
|
作者：
Ianni, Aldo [1 ]
Rossi, Nicola [1 ]
机构：
[1] INFN, Lab Nazl Gran Sasso, Via Acitelli 22, I-67100 Assergi, Italy
来源：
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL PLUS | 2020年 / 135卷 / 11期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00895-7
中图分类号：
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号：
0702 ;
摘要：
In this paper, we analyse the COVID-19 outbreak data with simple modifications of the SIR compartmental model, in order to understand the time evolution of the cases in Italy and Germany, during the first half of 2020. Even if the complexity of the pandemic cannot be easily described, we show that our models are suitable for understanding the data during the application of the social distancing and the lockdown. We compare and contrast different modifications of the SIR model showing the strengths and the weaknesses of each approach. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the model predictions for estimating the near- and far-future evolution of the outbreak.
引用
收藏
页数：10
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Emotional eating during COVID-19 lockdown
    Fernandez-Cao, Jose C.
    Doepking, Carlos
    Moran, Camila
    Rojas, Joanna
    Jimenez, Sergio
    REVISTA MEDICA DE CHILE, 2022, 150 (10) : 1408 - +
  • [32] The impact of COVID-19 on the learning during the lockdown
    Hurtado-Martin, Marta
    Lopez-Torres, Laura
    Santin, Daniel
    Sicilia, Gabriela
    Simancas, Rosa
    EDUCACION XX1, 2023, 26 (01): : 185 - 205
  • [33] CHANGES IN LIFESTYLES DURING THE COVID-19 LOCKDOWN
    Colom-Rossello, M.
    Garcia-Coll, N.
    Nafria, M.
    Molina-Mula, J.
    JOURNAL OF SPORT AND HEALTH RESEARCH, 2023, 15 (01): : 241 - 254
  • [34] Lockdown During COVID-19: The Greek Success
    Moris, Dimitrios
    Schizas, Dimitrios
    IN VIVO, 2020, 34 : 1695 - 1699
  • [35] Sleep During "Lockdown" in the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Trakada, Athanasia
    Nikolaidis, Pantelis T.
    Andrade, Marilia dos Santos
    Puccinelli, Paulo Jose
    Economou, Nicholas-Tiberio
    Steiropoulos, Paschalis
    Knechtle, Beat
    Trakada, Georgia
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, 2020, 17 (23) : 1 - 10
  • [36] Ocular Trauma During the COVID-19 Lockdown
    Stedman, Emily N.
    Jefferis, Joanna M.
    Tan, Jennifer H.
    OPHTHALMIC EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2021, 28 (05) : 458 - 460
  • [37] Psychological resilience during the COVID-19 lockdown
    Killgore, William D. S.
    Taylor, Emily C.
    Cloonan, Sara A.
    Dailey, Natalie S.
    PSYCHIATRY RESEARCH, 2020, 291
  • [38] Impact of the lockdown on acute stroke treatments during the first surge of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Netherlands
    Benali, Faysal
    Stolze, Lotte J.
    Rozeman, Anouk D.
    Dinkelaar, Wouter
    Coutinho, Jonathan M.
    Emmer, Bart J.
    Gons, Rob A. R.
    Yo, Lonneke F. S.
    van Tuijl, Julia H.
    Boukrab, Issam
    van Dam-Nolen, Dianne H. K.
    van den Wijngaard, Ido R.
    Nijeholt, Geert J. Lycklama A.
    de Laat, Karlijn F.
    van Dijk, Lukas C.
    den Hertog, Heleen M.
    Flach, H. Zwenneke
    Wermer, Marieke J. H.
    van Walderveen, Marianne A. A.
    Brouwers, Paul J. A. M.
    Bulut, Tomas
    Vermeer, Sarah E.
    Bernsen, Marie Louise E.
    Uyttenboogaart, Maarten
    Bokkers, Reinoud P. H.
    Boogaarts, Jeroen D.
    de Leeuw, Frank-Erik
    van der Worp, H. Bart
    van der Schaaf, Irene C.
    Schonewille, Wouter J.
    Vos, Jan A.
    Remmers, Michel J. M.
    Imani, Farshad
    Dippel, Diederik W. J.
    van Zwam, Wim H.
    Nederkoorn, Paul J.
    van Oostenbrugge, Robert J.
    BMC NEUROLOGY, 2022, 22 (01)
  • [39] Hospital attendance and admission trends for cardiac diseases during the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown in Greece
    Oikonomou, E.
    Aznaouridis, K.
    Barbetseas, J.
    Charalambous, G.
    Gastouniotis, I
    Fotopoulos, V
    Gkini, K-P
    Katsivas, A.
    Koudounis, G.
    Koudounis, P.
    Koutouzis, M.
    Lamprinos, D.
    Lazaris, E.
    Lazaros, G.
    Marinos, G.
    Platogiannis, N.
    Platogiannis, D.
    Siasos, G.
    Terentes-Printzios, D.
    Theodoropoulou, A.
    Theofilis, P.
    Toutouzas, K.
    Tsalamandris, S.
    Tsiafoutis, I
    Vavouranakis, M.
    Vogiatzi, G.
    Zografos, T.
    Baka, E.
    Tousoulis, D.
    Vlachopoulos, C.
    PUBLIC HEALTH, 2020, 187 : 115 - 119
  • [40] A Modified SIR Model for the COVID-19 Contagion in Italy
    Calafiore, Giuseppe C.
    Novara, Carlo
    Possieri, Corrado
    2020 59TH IEEE CONFERENCE ON DECISION AND CONTROL (CDC), 2020, : 3889 - 3894
12345