Dynamics of agricultural technology adoption: Age structure, reversibility, and uncertainty

被引：33
|
作者：
Baerenklau, Kenneth A. [1 ]
Knapp, Keith C. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Environm Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA
来源：
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2007年 / 89卷 / 01期
关键词：
Bellman's equation; irrigated agriculture; stochastic-dynamic optimization; technology adoption; water resources;
D O I：
10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00972.x
中图分类号：
F3 [农业经济];
学科分类号：
0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;
摘要：
We develop a dynamic model of technology adoption that generalizes previous literature by incorporating technology age, reversible investment, variable inputs and outputs, and stochastic prices. The model is calibrated for irrigated cotton production in California. Optimal investment exhibits a significant vintage capital effect which provides a new candidate explanation for delayed technology diffusion. We show that the hurdle rate derived by option value models can be partially explained by the assumption of irreversible investment, and simulations demonstrate this assumption has regional policy relevance. Uncertainty affects optimal investment but has a declining effect with technology age.
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页码：190 / 201
页数：12
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