Countrywide Positioning of Domestic Solar Water Heating Systems Using Risk Analysis and Geographical Information System

In this paper, choosing appropriate locations for household solar water heating systems within a country is based on assessing project feasibiltiy by using solar irradiation integrated ill a geographical information system (GIS) and investment risk analysis, based oil uncertain ties ill project input variables. Current indicators and statistics of solar systems of EU and Croatia ore given, followed by impacting factors on investments in domestic SWH. Investment risks ore (l. GIS is constructed to assess solor irradiation potential oil a countrywide scale. A spreadsheet model for financial analysis using the Monte Carlo method for probabilistic simulation of uncertain project parameters is shown, which integrates GIS and determines a financial feasibility for two case studies. Financial indicators of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and simple payback time (SPB) are shown for three investment strategies, varying in financial resources according to profiled income categories of households ill the country. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the impact of individual risks oil the financial outcome of the project. Financial flows are compared to determine the difference ill feasibility for the same project on two different locations. Probability distributions for risks and financial indicators are shown (C) 2010 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved.