Polarization or Diffusion? Spatio-temporal Evolution of Urban Technological Innovation Capacity in China's Five Urban Agglomerations

Under the background of collaborative innovation, innovation spillovers at urban agglomeration (UA) level is an important issue but rarely discussed. Using balanced panel data of innovation activities in China's five UAs from 2003 to 2016, this paper shows spatio-temporal evolution process of their technological innovation capacity with discussing polarization-diffusion patterns, and simultaneously examines driving factors of that evolution processes. We report three main findings: 1) there is a high degree of concentration in technological innovation capacity distribution within all China's five UAs, linked by economic and innovation collaboration. 2) Innovation capacity increase of China's five UAs is driven by government's investment in science and technology (S&T) to a large extent, followed by influences of infrastructure facilities construction, human capital for S&T, as well as transformation of industrial structure, with great disparities emerged between UAs in our sample period. 3) While the intra-region innovation gaps are reducing in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRD) with obvious innovation diffusion, urban agglomeration in middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR) is still dominated by innovation polarized growth. Differences in polarization-diffusion patterns between these two UAs may be explained by opposite returns of industrial structure and internet infrastructure. Our findings contribute to more effective policy making in promoting innovation development when reducing regional inequality through innovation diffusion.