Tax policy and charitable giving: an evaluation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017 and its impact on charitable contributions

Studies of how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017 will affect charitable giving narrowly focus on the increase in the standard deduction. Based on these studies, the media and policy analysts warned that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lead to a sharp decrease in charitable giving. However, these predictions did not fully account for some of the nuances in the tax code and the political economy of changes to tax policy. We explain that a richer analysis includes the political response of interest groups. Tax provisions other than changes to the standard deduction, such as an increase in the adjusted gross income limit, mean that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act may change the composition of giving but that it is unlikely to have a large impact on overall giving. To supplement our analytical narrative, we present statistics on the pattern of charitable giving and estimate a predictive autoregressive model of overall charitable giving. The results show that the change in giving after the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act cannot be distinguished from zero. We conclude that misleading interpretations about the effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on overall charitable giving are due to the omission of political economy from the analysis.