Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate policy

This research studies the non-linear relationship between interest rates and exchange rates for China and the United States using the rolling-window method. We also investigate uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and the capital market theory for the whole time period and subperiods so as to reconsider various economic connections between China and the United States. The results suggest that the effect of the latter's interest rate adjustment on China/U.S. exchange rate volatility is stronger than that of China's interest rate adjustment. Moreover, changes in the China/U.S. exchange rate have a slightly stronger effect on the U.S. interest rate than on China's interest rate. Our findings reveal that the interest rate parity theory does not hold for the entire sample period but may hold in subperiods. The results provide a reference for the steady implementation of RMB internationalization.