Short- and long-term survival after severe acute pancreatitis: A retrospective 17 years' cohort study from a single center

Purpose: To study mortality in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and to identify risk factors for mortality. Materials and methods: A retrospective 17-years' cohort study of 435 consecutive adult patientswith SAP treated at intensive care unit of a university hospital. Results: Overall, 357 (82.1%) patients survived at 90 days follow-up. Three-hundred six (89.5%) patients under 60 years, 38 (60.3%) patients between 60 and 69 years, and 13 (43.3%) patients over 69 years of age survived at 90 days follow-up. Independent risk factors for death within 90-days were: 60 to 69 years of age (odds ratio [OR] 5.1), >69 years of age (OR 10.4), female sex (OR 2.0), heart disease (OR 2.9), chronic liver failure (OR 12.3), open abdomen treatment (OR 4.4) and sterile necrosectomy within 4 weeks (OR 14.7). The 10-year survival estimate was <70% in patients under 60 years and <30% in patients over 60 years. Underlying cause of death after the initial 90-day follow-up periodwas alcohol-related in 48 (57.1%) patients, and all of them had suffered from alcoholic SAP. Conclusions: Although younger patients have excellent short-term survival after SAP, the long-term survival estimate is disappointing mostly due to alcohol abuse. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.