A Complex Equipment Reliability Prediction Model in Case of Disturbance Information

For complex equipment with multiple development phases, the reliability of the whole system will increase with timely correction strategies. It is significantly theoretical and practical to select an appropriate system reliability growth model for effective monitoring. Grey prediction model was introduced due to the characteristics of small sample and poor information. However, the traditional grey model has poor stability because of the disturbance information of the system.. Therefore, a fractional reverse accumulative grey Verhulst model was put forward in order to enhance the model stability and improve the prediction accuracy according to the characteristics of the system of test information. And its calculation formula was deduced Finally, the new model was applied to reliability prediction of a certain type of weapon system, and high prediction precision was obtained Thus, a new and reliable method was provided for a certain type of weapon systems with disturbance information.